Official polls and most analysts predicted a hung parliament as their baseline for the 2024 French parliamentary elections.

Judged against seat projections and analyst commentary published before 2024-06-30 for the 2024 French legislative election. True: most published pollster seat projections showed no single bloc reaching an absolute majority (289 seats) as their central estimate, and most analysts' commentary treated a hung parliament as the likeliest result. Mostly true: the central projections pointed to a hung parliament but a notable minority of projections had the top range reaching a majority, so the baseline was less clear-cut than stated. Mixed: projections were split roughly evenly between a hung parliament and a majority (for example for the Rassemblement National bloc). Mostly false: most central projections showed one bloc at or near an absolute majority, with a hung parliament only one of several scenarios. False: polls and most analysts clearly predicted an absolute majority for one bloc as the baseline.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 French election scenarios - Investment implications | Lombard Odier Lombard Odier · 18 June 2024

   “We therefore anticipate, as a base case, a hung parliament with no party scoring 289 seats and able to gain an absolute majority through the remainder of President Macron’s term which ends in April 2027.”

2. E2 MARKET COMMENTARY - Generali Asset Management Generali Asset Management · 13 June 2024

   “One of the most likely scenarios sees no absolute majority in Parliament. The right-wing RN will likely win the largest number of seats, but not enough to create an absolute majority.”

3. E3 MARKET COMMENTARY - Generali Asset Management Generali Asset Management · 13 June 2024

   “RN is projected to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament (235-265 expected vs”

Two investment firms' commentaries treat a hung parliament as a base case or one of the most likely outcomes [E1][E2], and one seat projection from an unnamed source puts the RN short of a majority [E3]. The evidence does not show what most published pollster seat projections said, which the criteria require for this verdict.