ClaimsGary Marcus

“I think it’s inevitable that we will get there,”

Gary Marcus, interviewee 20 September 2019 Gary Marcus on Why AI Needs a Reboot (Psychology Today)

Prediction AI, the economy and work Political

Marcus said he thinks it is inevitable that society will adopt universal basic income, and that the open question is whether this happens gradually or through social unrest.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'Inevitably' has no horizon, so it cannot be settled.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “Marcus said he thinks it is inevitable that society will adopt universal basic income, and that the open question is whether this happens gradually or through social unrest.” (said 20 September 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b82bd32e7352, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b82bd32e7352

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).”

    Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI.”

    Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”

    Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”

    GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

    OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.