ClaimsDario Amodei

“Maybe it’s more than 50% chance that as we get close and closer to AGI then it becomes clear how to make something safe.”

Dario Amodei, OpenAI researcher, interview answer 21 July 2017 Dario Amodei on OpenAI and how AI will change the world for good and ill (80,000 Hours) archived copy

Prediction AI safety and alignment

There may be more than a 50% chance that, as AI gets closer to AGI, it becomes clear how to make it safe.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

It is a hedged probabilistic prediction with no time horizon.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “There may be more than a 50% chance that, as AI gets closer to AGI, it becomes clear how to make it safe.” (said 21 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b7b693362fc6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b7b693362fc6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Dario Amodei, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Resolved true Prediction 11 November 2024
    “I would not be surprised at all if we hit ASL-3 next year.”

    Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 8 August 2023
    “I don't think we have the level of autonomy yet to worry about some of the alignment stuff happening in two years, but it might not be very far behind that at all.”

    AI models will not have enough autonomy within two years to raise alignment concerns, though that may not be far behind.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
    “We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

    Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
    “We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”

    Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”

    Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.