Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The claim is general: within three to six months of 10 March 2025 (by about 10 September 2025), AI will be writing 90% of code, read as code written by software developers broadly. True: credible measurement or estimates from the industry at large show about 90% (85% or more) of new code being AI-generated by September 2025. Mostly true: about 80–85% industry-wide by that date. Mostly false: about 90% reached only within particular companies or teams (for example within Anthropic, or some teams there), or by a narrow measure, while industry-wide shares were much lower (a part stated as the whole), or 90% reached broadly only after September 2025. False: credible industry-wide data from around September 2025 shows the AI-written share well below 90% (for example under 50%), and no broad 90% level.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Is 90% of code at Anthropic being written by AIs? — LessWrong LessWrong · 22 October 2025
“The average over all of Anthropic for lines of merged code written by AI is much less than 90%, more like 50%.”
-
E2 AI Coding Data Shows Widespread Use but No Industrywide Code Share | TokenPost TokenPost · 20 October 2026
“AI tools are common in software development, but recent findings measure different kinds of use and output, leaving no comparable industrywide figure for how much code AI produces.”
-
E3 AI Coding Data Shows Widespread Use but No Industrywide Code Share | TokenPost TokenPost · 20 October 2026
“Respondents put the 2025 share at 42% and projected 55% for 2026 and 65% for 2027.”
-
E4 75% Google code now AI-generated, says Sundar Pichai: How company is putting AI to work The Indian Express · 26 April 2026
“Today, 75 per cent of all new code at Google is now AI-generated and approved by engineers, up from 50 per cent last fall,”
Reasoning
Survey respondents put the 2025 share of code produced by AI at 42% (E3). Google reported that 50% of its new code was AI-generated in fall 2025 (E4). An analysis of Anthropic's own merged code put the AI-written share at roughly 50%, not 90% (E1). A later review says no comparable industry-wide figure exists (E2). Still, every available measure from around September 2025 is well below 90%, including those from leading AI companies, and nothing shows 90% reached broadly by the deadline.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.” (said 10 March 2025). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_81708f3549bc, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_81708f3549bc
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
-
Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
-
Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
-
Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
-
Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
-
Resolved true
“Probably the export controls may even have, you know, the impact of stimulating China.”
US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.