Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The test is whether, between 1 Jan and 31 Dec 2025, Anthropic formally determined that one of its models required ASL-3 protections under its Responsible Scaling Policy. This includes a precautionary determination that ASL-3 capability could not be ruled out, followed by activation of the ASL-3 deployment and/or security standard. TRUE: such a determination or activation is dated within 2025. MOSTLY TRUE: the activation happened in 2025, but Anthropic described it as covering only one of its ASL-3 capability thresholds (for example CBRN only) rather than all of them. MIXED: not normally used, because this is a single-outcome prediction. MOSTLY FALSE: the first ASL-3 determination came only after 31 Dec 2025, or it came before 2025 (so the model did not 'hit' it next year). Also mostly false if the only 2025 events were internal statements that a model was 'close to' ASL-3, with no activation. FALSE: Anthropic records from 2025 or later (RSP capability reports, system cards) show that every model deployed in 2025 stayed under ASL-2 with no ASL-3 determination.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Activating AI Safety Level 3 protections Anthropic · 22 May 2025 Own record
“And indeed, in the lead up to releasing Claude Opus 4, we proactively decided to launch it under the ASL-3 Standard.”
-
E2 ActivatingASL-3_2025 Anthropic · May 2025 Own record
“the ASL-3 Standard, and we are implementing it now as a precautionary measure.”
-
E3 Claude 4.1 System Card Anthropic · August 2025 Own record
“Like Claude Opus 4, Claude Opus 4.1 is deployed under the AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3)”
-
E4 Anthropic’s Transparency Hub Anthropic Own record
“Based on our evaluations detailed below, we ruled out the need to release Claude Haiku 4.5 under the ASL-3 Standard and are instead releasing it under the ASL-2 Standard.”
Reasoning
Anthropic's official announcement dated 2025-05-22 [E1] says it proactively chose to launch Claude Opus 4 under the ASL-3 Standard. The accompanying May 2025 report [E2] says ASL-3 is being implemented now as a precautionary measure. Both match the criteria's precautionary-determination-plus-activation case within 2025, and the August 2025 Claude 4.1 System Card [E3] confirms ASL-3 deployment continued. These are Anthropic's own official records, and the quoted text does not say the activation was limited to a single capability threshold, so the evidence supports true rather than mostly true.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025.” (said 11 November 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_4e404ff97d27, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4e404ff97d27
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
-
Mostly true
“I don't think we have the level of autonomy yet to worry about some of the alignment stuff happening in two years, but it might not be very far behind that at all.”
-
Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
-
Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
-
Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
-
Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.