ClaimsNassim Taleb

“Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old.”

Nassim Taleb, interviewee 10 July 2017 Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game (EconTalk) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Compute the age of Fooled by Randomness on 2017-07-10 from its first publication date, using the first edition. The claim is rough and hedged ("close to 20"), so judge it loosely. TRUE: the book was about 18 to 20 years old on that date (first published around 1997 to mid-1999). MOSTLY TRUE: about 15 to 17.9 years old (first published around mid-1999 to 2002); it is approaching 20 but noticeably short. MOSTLY FALSE: about 12 to 14.9 years old. FALSE: under 12 years old, or more than 22 years old.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Editions of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Goodreads

    “by Nassim Nicholas Taleb First published November 3rd 2001”

  2. E2 Fooled by Randomness - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “In 2001, TEXERE published the first edition of the book.”

  3. E3 Fooled by Randomness | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Texere Publishing - 예스24 YES24 (Korean online bookseller) · 1 October 2001

    “발행일 | 2001년 10월 01일 |”

Reasoning

Wikipedia [E2] says TEXERE published the first edition in 2001. YES24 [E3] gives a publication date of 1 October 2001, and Goodreads [E1] gives 3 November 2001. That makes the book about 15.7 years old on 2017-07-10. This falls in the criteria's 15–17.9-year band, so the claim is mostly true: the book was approaching 20 but noticeably short of it.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b7b38293407c, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b7b38293407c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mostly true Factual 21 September 2025
    “adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions (includes Tsallis Entropy).”

    The 3rd edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is available and adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions including Tsallis Entropy.

  2. Resolved true Factual 18 March 2024
    “Just to remind people that I have NOTHING to do with "nassimtaleb. org"”

    Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org".

  3. Resolved true Factual 2023
    “We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1)”

    The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022).

  4. Resolved true Factual November 2021
    “I am writing these lines from the vantage point of my specialty of decision making under uncertainty, not that of theology”

    The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology.

  5. Mostly true Factual 29 December 2020
    “This part in Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of depositors in #Lebanon who enjoyed steady AND high returns.”

    A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.