Kurzweil's 'law of accelerating returns' does not rely merely on assuming Moore's Law continues.

Judge as of 2000-10-23. This is a claim about how Kurzweil's own theory is defined. True: Kurzweil's own statement of the law of accelerating returns (e.g. in his 2001 essay 'The Law of Accelerating Returns' or The Age of Spiritual Machines) rests on evidence beyond Moore's Law, such as exponential trends in computing that began before integrated circuits (electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube and transistor computers) and in other technologies, and treats Moore's Law as one paradigm among several. Mostly true: the theory draws on wider evidence, but in substance it leans largely on Moore's Law trends. Mostly false: apart from passing mention of other trends, the theory's argument depends essentially on Moore's Law continuing. False: the theory is explicitly based only on Moore's Law continuing.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 [PDF] Chapter 10 The Emergence and Impact of Intelligent Machines ... NASA NTRS (hosting a copy of Ray Kurzweil's chapter) Own record

   “These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes.”

2. E2 [PDF] Chapter 10 The Emergence and Impact of Intelligent Machines ... NASA NTRS (hosting a copy of Ray Kurzweil's chapter) Own record

   “If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the entire twentieth century, we note that there were four completely different paradigms that provided exponential growth in the price-performance of computing before the integrated circuits were invented.”

3. E3 Essay Review Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith (review by Ian H. Hutchinson) · December 2000

   “The principle of development Kurzweil adopts is that the power of computers will continue to grow exponentially at the current rate (usually summarized by "Moore's Law") for the next century.”

4. E4 Exponential Laws of Computing Growth - Communications of the ACM Communications of the ACM · 2017

   “We noted earlier that Kurzweil explained exponential growth in the power of information technology by five massive switches to new technology that made older ones obsolete.”

The criteria ask how Kurzweil himself states the theory. His own chapter says these observations do not rely merely on Moore's law continuing but on "a rich model of diverse technological processes" (E1). It also describes four paradigms that gave exponential price-performance growth in computing before integrated circuits existed, which makes Moore's Law one paradigm among several (E2). A later independent ACM article gives the same account, describing Kurzweil's explanation as five massive switches to new technology (E4). One independent reviewer sums up Kurzweil's principle as Moore's Law-style growth (E3), but that is a shorthand summary and does not outweigh the theory's stated basis.