In The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), Kurzweil predicted computers would pass the Turing Test by 2029.

Claim: in 'The Age of Spiritual Machines' (1999), Kurzweil predicted computers would pass the Turing Test by 2029. True if the 1999 book contains a prediction that a computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029. Mostly true if the book predicts this with a minor date discrepancy. Mixed if the prediction exists but the year is materially different. Mostly false if he made such a prediction but not in that book or not with 2029. False if no such prediction appears in his work.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Age of Spiritual Machines Wikipedia

   “by 2029 machines "routinely" pass the test, although there is still controversy about how machine and human intelligence compare.”

2. E2 the Kurzweil Library Writings by Ray Kurzweil (the Kurzweil Library) · June 2014 Own record

   “I specified the 2029 date in my 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines.”

3. E3 A Wager on the Turing Test: The Rules KurzweilAI.net (mirror) · 9 April 2002 Own record

   “Ray Kurzweil maintains that a computer (i.e., a machine intelligence) will pass the Turing test by 2029.”

E1 is an independent Wikipedia summary of The Age of Spiritual Machines. It says that in the book's scenario for 2029, machines "routinely" pass the Turing Test. Kurzweil's own writings agree: E2 says he gave the 2029 date in the 1999 book, and the 2002 wager rules in E3 say a computer will pass the Turing Test by 2029. The independent summary, backed by the subject's own records, shows that the 1999 book contains a 2029 prediction for passing the Turing Test.