The law of accelerating returns is based on a model of diverse technological processes that Kurzweil has developed over the past couple of decades.

Judged as of 2000-10-23. True: Kurzweil's published work from about 1980 to 2000 shows he was developing a model of technological change across several fields (computation, communications, other technology trends) over roughly two decades, for example in The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990), The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999) and earlier trend analyses, and the law of accelerating returns rests on that model. Mostly true: such a model exists and underlies the law, but the timeline is noticeably shorter (for example about 10 to 15 years) or the range of processes is narrower than 'diverse'. Mixed: the law partly rests on such a model but mainly on extrapolating a single trend such as Moore's law. Mostly false: the work is mostly recent (only a few years old) or covers essentially one technology. False: evidence shows there was no such model, or that the law was not based on one.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Sander Olson Interviews Ray Kurzweil the Kurzweil Library (thekurzweillibrary.com) · 10 February 2006 Own record

   “I began seriously modeling technology trends around 1980.”

2. E2 The Law of Accelerating Returns Wikipedia · 14 March 2006

   “In it, Kurzweil argued for extending Moore's Law to describe exponential growth of diverse forms of technological progress.”

3. E3 THE AGE OF SPIRITUAL MACHINES | Kirkus Reviews Kirkus Reviews · 1 December 1998

   “Kurzweil (The Age of Intelligent Machines, not reviewed) posits that technological progress moves at exponential rates.”

4. E4 Sander Olson Interviews Ray Kurzweil the Kurzweil Library (thekurzweillibrary.com) · 10 February 2006 Own record

   “The key issue is that information technology and information processes progress at an exponential pace.”

E2 is independent and describes the law of accelerating returns as extending Moore's Law to exponential growth across diverse forms of technological progress, so the law rests on more than one trend. E3, a 1998 review, shows Kurzweil was already arguing that technological progress moves at exponential rates and names his earlier book, The Age of Intelligent Machines. The roughly 20-year timeline, with modelling starting around 1980, comes only from Kurzweil's own later interview (E1). No independent evidence here shows the model's content before the late 1990s, so the full two-decade span is not independently confirmed.