ClaimsBill Gates

“For under a dollar, there were interventions that could save lives that just weren’t being delivered.”

Bill Gates, giving Harvard commencement speech 7 June 2007 Remarks of Bill Gates, Harvard Commencement 2007 (Harvard Gazette) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Interventions costing under a dollar could save lives but were not being delivered.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2007-06-07. True: credible public-health sources from before or around 2007 document life-saving interventions costing under one US dollar per dose or per treatment that were not reaching many people who needed them. Examples would be oral rehydration salts, vitamin A supplements, measles vaccine doses or zinc. Mostly true: such interventions cost about a dollar or slightly more, or they were under-delivered rather than not delivered at all. Mixed: the interventions existed but the cost figures depend on the costing method (for example per dose versus per full course or per life saved). Mostly false: interventions costing under a dollar existed but were already widely delivered, or they were not life-saving. False: no life-saving intervention cost under a dollar.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13811-1 (Child Survival II, Lancet 2003; 362: 65–71) The Lancet (Bellagio Child Survival Study Group; authors incl. UNICEF, CDC, Johns Hopkins, Aga Khan, LSHTM) · 5 July 2003

    “These findings show that we have the knowledge and instruments to reduce child mortality, but that children continue to die because the interventions are not reaching them.”
  2. E2 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13811-1 (Child Survival II, Lancet 2003; 362: 65–71) The Lancet (Bellagio Child Survival Study Group; authors incl. UNICEF, CDC, Johns Hopkins, Aga Khan, LSHTM) · 5 July 2003

    “to be outstripping the efforts to save millions of children every year with a few cents’ worth of ITMs, oral rehydration therapy, or efforts to promote breastfeeding.”
  3. E3 Cheap ways to save lives - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 27 November 2007

    “Research suggests that providing vitamin A supplements (a product that costs less than a quarter) to children under five can reduce child mortaility by pretty huge amounts.”
  4. E4 The alarming need for universalising Oral Rehydration Therapy: How many more children must die? Journal of Global Health Economics and Policy · 2022

    “UNICEF data from 2005–2008 showed that an alarmingly low proportion—29% in Africa, 32% in the Middle East and 33% in South Asia—of children under-five received ORT for diarrhoea.”

Reasoning

The 2003 Lancet Child Survival series says children were still dying because existing interventions were not reaching them (E1). It describes oral rehydration therapy and similar measures as worth "a few cents" (E2), which is well under a dollar. GiveWell's November 2007 post, written around the time of the claim, says vitamin A supplements cost less than a quarter and can cut child deaths sharply (E3). UNICEF data from 2005–2008 shows only about 29–33% of children under five with diarrhoea in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia received oral rehydration therapy (E4). Together these meet the "True" criterion: life-saving interventions under a dollar that were not reaching many people who needed them.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Interventions costing under a dollar could save lives but were not being delivered.” (said 7 June 2007). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b56f9e12ec4c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b56f9e12ec4c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Bill Gates

  1. Resolved true Factual 10 February 2020
    “It has also succeeded in bringing more vaccines and supplies into the market while lowering prices.”

    Gavi has brought more vaccines and supplies into the market while lowering prices.

  2. Mixed Factual 2015
    “If the regulations limit digital banking, as is still the case in most countries, innovators can’t enter.”

    Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering.

  3. Mixed Factual 2015
    “Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs.”

    Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs.

  4. Mostly true Factual 2015
    “Indeed, small loans have helped millions of people, but loans are only one of the financial services the poor need, interest rates are relatively high, and these services have reached only a small…”

    Small loans have helped millions of people but have reached only a small fraction of the poorest, with relatively high interest rates.

  5. Resolved true Factual 1999
    “In 1995, in The Road Ahead, I used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping to create Adam Smith’s ideal marketplace”

    In 1995 in The Road Ahead, Bill Gates used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace.

All of them

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