US student debt was $300 billion in 2000 and is $1.7 trillion as of early 2020.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2020-02-07. Compare with total outstanding US student loan debt from the Federal Reserve G.19 consumer credit series or NY Fed Household Debt and Credit reports: 2000 (about Q4 2000 or year-average) and the latest figure available in early 2020 (Q4 2019). TRUE: both figures are within about 10% of the claimed values ($270–330B for 2000; $1.53–1.87T for early 2020) on at least one standard series. MOSTLY TRUE: one figure is within 10% and the other within 10–25%. MIXED: one figure is within 10% and the other off by more than 25%, or both are off by 10–25%. MOSTLY FALSE: both are off by more than 10%, at least one by more than 25%, but debt still grew several-fold. FALSE: both figures are far off (more than 25%) or the growth trend is misstated.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (6)
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E1 Household Debt and Credit report Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020
“Outstanding student loan debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter, up by $10 billion from 2019Q3.”
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E2 Who Borrows for College—and Who Repays? - Liberty Street Economics Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 9 October 2019
“Student loans neared $1.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2019, a more than fivefold increase since the beginning of 2003.”
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E3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2019: Q4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020
“Outstanding student loan debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter, up by $10 billion from 2019Q3.”
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E4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2019: Q4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020
“Student loan data are not reported prior to 2004 due to uneven reporting”
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E5 Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume Since 2005 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 11 February 2020
“Outstanding student debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase of $10 billion from Q3 2019.”
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E6 What Went Wrong with Federal Student Loans? Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago (working paper by Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis) · May 2024
“and the total amount they owed more than quadrupled from $387 billion to $1.8 trillion, growing much faster than any other form of household debt.”
Reasoning
The NY Fed puts outstanding student loan debt at $1.51 trillion in Q4 2019 (E1, E3, E5). That is about 11% below the claimed $1.7 trillion, just outside the 10% band. No Federal Reserve G.19 figure was provided, and the criteria allow either standard series. No source gives a figure for 2000. The NY Fed series does not report student loans before 2004 (E4), and E2 only describes a more-than-fivefold rise since early 2003 without stating a 2003 amount. E6 gives a $387 billion starting figure but no year, so the 2000 figure, which the criteria require, cannot be checked against the bands.
Cite this claim
Peter Thiel, “US student debt was $300 billion in 2000 and is $1.7 trillion as of early 2020.” (said 7 February 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b4a36cd0a630, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b4a36cd0a630
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.