ClaimsPeter Thiel

“California is not poor.”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 9 November 2022 Peter Thiel, Leader Of The Rebel Alliance (Hoover Institution)

Factual Economics and markets

California is not a poor state.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of November 2022, treating 'not poor' as a claim about California's overall economic standing among US states. True: standard state-level measures for 2021–2022 put California above the US average or median on both GDP per capita and median household income (for example BEA and Census ACS data); being the largest state economy by total GDP supports this. Mostly true: California is above average on most aggregate income and output measures but below the national median on one secondary measure. Mixed: aggregate measures are high, but California is among the worst states on poverty-based measures such as the Census Supplemental Poverty Measure, and the claim's context is clearly about poverty rates rather than aggregate wealth. Mostly false: California is at or below the national median on most income measures, with only total GDP high. False: California ranks in the bottom tier of states on per-capita income and output measures.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Rich get richer: Income inequality grows in California, US Orange County Register (Southern California News Group), column by Jonathan Lansner · 17 October 2022

    “California has the sixth-highest median household income in 2021 at $84,907. That was topped only by Maryland at $90,203, then DC at $90,088, Massachusetts at $89,645, New Jersey at $89,296 and New Hampshire at $88,465.”
  2. E2 [PDF] Fast Facts on the California Economy California State Assembly Committee on Jobs, Economic Development, and the Economy · 26 July 2022

    “California had a $3.3 trillion economy in 2021, representing 14.5% of US GDP.”
  3. E3 [PDF] Fast Facts on the California Economy California State Assembly Committee on Jobs, Economic Development, and the Economy · 26 July 2022

    “Using the federal Supplemental Poverty Measure, which accounts for the cost of living using a range of family needs and resources, 15.4% of Californians (11.2% for US) had income insufficient to meet their basic housing needs in 2020.”
  4. E4 Household Income: 2021 - Census.gov U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey Brief ACSBR-011, by Gloria Guzman) · October 2022

    “The U.S. median household income from the 2021 ACS was $69,717 (Table 1).”

Reasoning

California's 2021 median household income was $84,907, sixth-highest in a ranking of states and DC (E1). That is well above the US median of $69,717 from the Census Bureau's 2021 ACS (E4). California's $3.3 trillion economy made up 14.5% of US GDP in 2021 (E2), which supports strong aggregate output, but none of the evidence gives a GDP-per-capita figure, so the second test for "true" is not directly met. California's Supplemental Poverty Measure rate was worse than the national rate (15.4% vs 11.2%, E3), but nothing shows the claim was about poverty rates, so on the measures available the claim is mostly true.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “California is not a poor state.” (said 9 November 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f46f929c6644, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f46f929c6644

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Peter Thiel

  1. Mostly true Factual 18 November 2024
    “But if tech means producing more with less, then we should be seeing dramatic economic progress, we don't.”

    If technology means producing more with less, there should be dramatic economic progress, but there has not been, and millennials are not dramatically better off than their boomer parents.

  2. Mostly true Factual 8 October 2024
    “I tend to measure it in things like these economic terms in the way that the average millennial is having a tougher time than their boomer parents at the same point in life.”

    The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “The average California government worker gets paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.”

    The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.

  4. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “We weren't deeply connected to the Soviet Union.”

    The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “There's sort of a way in which the two economies are very deeply connected.”

    The US and Chinese economies are very deeply connected.

All of them

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