ClaimsPeter Thiel

“I tend to measure it in things like these economic terms in the way that the average millennial is having a tougher time than their boomer parents at the same point in life.”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 8 October 2024 Apocalypse Now? Peter Thiel On Ancient Prophecies And Modern Tech (Hoover Institution) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2024-10-08. This claim is about degree. Compare millennials with baby boomers at the same age (roughly 25–40) on standard economic measures: real household wealth or net worth, homeownership rate, housing affordability, real income or earnings, and debt burden (including student debt). Sources: Federal Reserve SCF/DFA, Census, St. Louis Fed or Pew generational analyses. TRUE: most of these measures show millennials clearly worse off than boomers at the same age, and major analyses broadly conclude so. MOSTLY TRUE: most measures show millennials worse off, but one notable measure (e.g. real household income) is equal or better. MIXED: the measures are roughly evenly split, or analyses disagree substantially. MOSTLY FALSE: most measures show millennials doing as well or better, with only one or two (e.g. homeownership) worse. FALSE: millennials are equal or better off on nearly all measures.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Are There Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership? St. Louis Fed (On the Economy) · 13 November 2023

    “For example, at age 30, the median millennial without a college education earned 23% less than the median member of the Silent Generation, 12% less than the median baby boomer and 4% less than the median member of Gen X, the author noted.”
  2. E2 Are There Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership? St. Louis Fed (On the Economy) · 13 November 2023

    “Gregory noted that starting with the baby boomer generation, college-educated workers lacked the generational income gap found among workers without a college education. Up through age 35, millennials, Gen Xers and baby boomers earned the same; after age 35, Gen X and millennials earned more than baby boomers.”
  3. E3 Boom and bust? Millennials aren’t all worse off than Baby Boomers, but the rich-poor gap is widening University of Cambridge · 16 November 2023

    “While 62% of Boomers owned homes at 35, for example, only 49% of Millennials did. Around 14% of Millennials had negative net worth, meaning their debts outweighed their assets, compared with 8.7% of Boomers.”
  4. E4 Are the kids alright? Saving and wealth accumulation among the millennial generation | Brookings Brookings Institution · 9 March 2022

    “The figure shows that, using either age-group comparison, median wealth among Millennials in 2016 was lower than among similarly-aged cohorts in any year from 1989 to 2007.”

Reasoning

Brookings reports that millennials' median wealth in 2016 was lower than that of similarly aged cohorts in any year from 1989 to 2007 (E4). A Cambridge study reports lower homeownership at 35 (49% vs 62%) and a higher share with negative net worth (14% vs 8.7%) for millennials than for boomers (E3). Income is split: millennials without a college degree earned 12% less than boomers at age 30, but college-educated millennials earned the same through age 35 and more after (E1, E2). Most measures show millennials worse off, but income is not clearly worse and the Cambridge study notes that not all millennials are worse off, so the verdict is mostly true.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life.” (said 8 October 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_4c5d2e216550, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4c5d2e216550

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Peter Thiel

  1. Mostly true Factual 18 November 2024
    “But if tech means producing more with less, then we should be seeing dramatic economic progress, we don't.”

    If technology means producing more with less, there should be dramatic economic progress, but there has not been, and millennials are not dramatically better off than their boomer parents.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “California is not poor.”

    California is not a poor state.

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 November 2022
    “The average California government worker gets paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.”

    The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.

  4. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “We weren't deeply connected to the Soviet Union.”

    The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 February 2020
    “There's sort of a way in which the two economies are very deeply connected.”

    The US and Chinese economies are very deeply connected.

All of them

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