Once AI is superintelligent, it will probably have access to much better simulations than exist now.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Prediction conditional on superintelligence with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Once AI is superintelligent, it will probably have access to much better simulations than exist now.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b251a1212485, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b251a1212485
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
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Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.
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“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
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“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
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Resolved true
“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
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