ClaimsSteven Pinker

“The world seems to have turned a corner on coal, avoiding RCP8.5.”

Steven Pinker, on X 23 December 2019 Post by @sapinker on X, 2019-12-23 (X)

Prediction Other global risks

The world seems to have turned a corner on coal, so the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario may be avoided.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

The prediction ('may be avoided') is hedged and has no horizon or defined test, though RCP8.5 plausibility is debated, so no record could settle it cleanly.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “The world seems to have turned a corner on coal, so the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario may be avoided.” (said 23 December 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ab7d6781cdfb, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ab7d6781cdfb

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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