Burry said that, absent a new asset bubble, 2001-era US common stock valuations appeared to promise future returns well below those still expected by the investing public.

Test: over roughly the next decade from 2001–2002, were US stock returns well below what the investing public then expected? Compare the S&P 500 annualised total return (about 2002–2012) with investor return expectations reported at the time (for example Gallup/UBS or similar surveys, often around 10% a year or more). True: realised returns were well below expectations (several percentage points a year lower). Mostly true: returns were clearly below expectations, but by a smaller margin. Mixed: they were below over some reasonable horizons and not others. Mostly false: they were only slightly below expectations. False: they matched or exceeded expectations. A new asset bubble that lifted returns is the claim's own exception; note it if relevant.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Leftovers of Irrational Exuberance Gallup · 2 September 2003

   “Our results show that on average, American investors expect a 14.3% return on equity investments, more than twice what the experts project.”

2. E2 Are Equity Returns Worth the Risks? Gallup · 20 August 2002

   “In July 2001, investors said the stock market would provide them with an annual average rate of return of 9.1% over the next 12 months.”

3. E3 It's Not Really A Lost Decade Forbes (Advisor Network contributor Kevin Mahn, Hennion & Walsh Asset Management) · 13 September 2010

   “When dividends are factored in, the results do not get much better as annualized total return for the S&P 500 index (with dividends reinvested back into the index) over the same timeframe was -0.95%.”

4. E4 S&P 500 Returns by Decade: The 10% Average Almost No One Actually Lived Through · Finlume Finlume · 15 June 2026

   “The 2000s — often called the “lost decade” — delivered roughly -0.9% per year in nominal total return, dragged down by the dot-com crash (2000-2002) and the 2008 financial crisis.”

The evidence shows investor expectations of 9.1% to 14.3% a year (E1, E2) and an S&P 500 total return of about -0.9% a year for the 2000s decade (E4). That figure includes the 2000–2002 crash, which came before the prediction. E3 does not state its period. No evidence item gives returns for the criteria's window of about 2002–2012.