ClaimsNate Silver

“I still tend not to think that public opinion on impeachment will move much, but it's hard to know.”

Nate Silver, writing on X 23 September 2019 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2019-09-23 (X)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting Political

Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Test: did net public support for impeaching or removing Trump, in polling averages, change much between about 2019-09-23 and the end of the impeachment process (Senate acquittal, 2020-02-05)? Use the FiveThirtyEight impeachment polling average or a comparable aggregate. Measure the largest sustained change in the share supporting impeachment against its level around 2019-09-23. The claim does not give a number, so 'much' is graded this way. TRUE: the change stays under about 3 points throughout. MOSTLY TRUE: the change is about 3 to 5 points. MIXED: the change is about 5 to 7 points. MOSTLY FALSE: the change is about 7 to 10 points. FALSE: the change is more than 10 points. Brief one-poll spikes do not count; use the average.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Partisanship Meets Trump’s Impeachment Chatham House · 19 December 2019

    “Polling averages from the end of September 2019 (before the hearings began, but after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal inquiry) had 49.4% supporting impeachment versus 47.2% this week.”

  2. E2 “Our job is to shape public opinion”: House Democrats aren’t obsessing over impeachment polls Vox · 14 November 2019

    “A FiveThirtyEight polling average showed 51 percent of the American public supports the impeachment inquiry, while a slightly smaller percentage — 47 percent — supports impeachment and removal of the president from office.”

  3. E3 Trump’s acquittal and the election: Partisans battle for the few on the fence San Francisco Chronicle · 6 February 2020

    “Public opinion barely changed from the time House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry in September. On Oct. 1, 45% of Americans overall — including 40% of independent voters — supported removing Trump from office, according to a tracking poll at FiveThirtyEight.com. On Jan. 31, 48% of Americans overall and 42% of independents backed removal.”

  4. E4 Impeachment moved nobody but threatens trouble for Democrats The Hill · 7 January 2020

    “According to polling averages calculated by the site FiveThirtyEight, opposition to impeachment exceeded support from March through the end of September 2019. In July, an outright majority opposed impeachment; however, support for impeachment is now greater than opposition and has remained so since September.”

Reasoning

I rated this mostly true because the polling averages moved by roughly 2 to 3 points, which sits at the line between the true and mostly-true grades. E1 cites averages showing support for impeachment at 49.4% at the end of September 2019 and 47.2% in mid-December, a drop of about 2 points. E3 cites FiveThirtyEight's tracker showing support for removal at 45% on Oct. 1 and 48% on Jan. 31, a rise of about 3 points, and E2 puts removal at 47% in mid-November. The evidence does not show every point in between, so a slightly larger peak can't be ruled out.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know.” (said 23 September 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a8713f730d8e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a8713f730d8e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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  2. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
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  3. Resolved true Prediction 30 June 2022
    “Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.”

    Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
    “It's not that hard for Democrats to back into holding the Senate if there are subpar GOP candidates in a couple of key states or they just happen to win the races that are decided by a point or two.”

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  5. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.