Exponential growth applies to every type of technology, not just computers.

The claim is universal: every type of technology, not only computing, shows exponential growth (in performance or price-performance). True: authoritative evidence shows exponential improvement in essentially all technology types studied, with no significant counterexamples. Mostly true: exponential improvement holds for nearly all technologies, with only a few minor exceptions. Mixed: exponential trends are documented in a large share of technologies, but a comparable share show no exponential improvement. Mostly false: exponential improvement is documented in many technologies (such as computing, sequencing and solar), but well-documented technologies show linear, slowing or stalled progress (for example some transport speeds or energy-conversion efficiencies near physical limits), so the universal claim overstates a real pattern. False: the evidence shows exponential improvement is rare outside computing.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Generalizing Moore - Nature Physics Nature Physics · 1 March 2016

   “Much less known, however, is that this pattern of exponential advance isn't actually limited to electronics; it applies just as well to technologies ranging from cars or batteries to beer or nuclear power.”

2. E2 Quantitative empirical trends in technical performance Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division · July 2014

   “by these measures, all 28 domains have high quality fits between the log of performance and time”

3. E3 Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress Oxford Martin Institute for Technology and Employment (INET Oxford) · 28 February 2013

   “Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs.”

4. E4 Airplane Speeds Have Stagnated for 40 Years Mercatus Center · 20 July 2016

   “In the decades to follow, the speed of aviation stagnated—and even regressed.”

E1 (Nature Physics) and E2 (MIT, 28 domains) document exponential improvement well beyond computing, and E3 tests cost-forecasting laws across 62 technologies. So the pattern is real and broad. E4, however, documents a counterexample: aviation speed stagnated and even regressed in the decades that followed. The criteria name exactly this kind of stalled transport speed as the mark of a mostly-false universal claim, so the claim overstates a real pattern.