Damage from self-replicating software is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the benefit received from computers and communication links.

Judge as of 2000-10-23. True: credible estimates of the economic damage from computer viruses and worms around 2000 (e.g. Computer Economics estimates of about $10–20 billion a year, including ILOVEYOU) are less than 0.1% of a credible estimate of the economic value of computers and communications (e.g. the value of the IT sector or the benefit IT brings to the world economy), with clear margin ('much less'). Mostly true: the damage is under 0.1% but not by a wide margin, or the result depends on a reasonable but generous estimate of the benefit. Mixed: the ratio is near 0.1% and the answer depends heavily on which estimates are used. Mostly false: damage was relatively small but the ratio exceeds 0.1% on standard estimates, or the precise figure is asserted with no supporting basis (unproven). False: damage estimates are clearly well above 0.1% of the benefit.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 $12.1 billion reportedly spent to ward off computer viruses in 1999 CNN (IDG report) · 17 January 2000

   “Virus attacks on information systems around the world led to $12.1 billion in spending last year, according to researcher Computer Economics.”

2. E2 ‘Love’ virus costs approaching $7B, research firm says Computerworld · 9 May 2000

   “have cost businesses, governments and other technology users a total of $6.7 billion in damages so far, according to an estimate released today by Computer Economics Inc. in Carlsbad, Calif.”

3. E3 ‘Love’ virus costs approaching $7B, research firm says Computerworld · 9 May 2000

   “Computer Economics previously said the amount of damage caused by the fast-moving e-mail virus could ultimately reach $10 billion.”

4. E4 ‘Love’ virus costs approaching $7B, research firm says Computerworld · 9 May 2000

   “The cost of virus outbreaks can be a subjective thing to quantify, said Hession, who works in Giga’s New York office.”

5. E5 Global IT spending to top $3 trillion by 2004, IDC says Computerworld · 15 June 2000

   “More than $2 trillion was spent worldwide on information and communications technology last year”

Computer Economics estimated that virus attacks cost $12.1 billion in 1999 (E1), and that ILOVEYOU alone had cost $6.7 billion by May 2000, possibly rising to $10 billion (E2, E3). IDC reported that the world spent more than $2 trillion on information and communications technology in 1999 (E5). Measured against that spending, the damage is about 0.5–1%, well above the claimed "much less than 0.1%". For the claim to hold against the $12.1 billion estimate [E1], the benefit would have to be more than about $12 trillion a year, several times the more than $2 trillion reported as worldwide ICT spending for 1999 [E5]. The benefit could exceed the amount spent, and a Giga analyst noted that virus costs are hard to measure (E4), so the ratio is uncertain. But measured against the only benefit-side figure available, worldwide ICT spending of more than $2 trillion [E5], the damage estimates [E1][E2] exceed 0.1%.