Altman said he expects the trend of newer models such as o3-mini outperforming older ones such as o1 at a much lower cost to continue, and that the ability to get marginally more performance for exponentially more money will be really strange.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Vague general trend prediction with no horizon and undefined terms like exponentially.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Altman said he expects the trend of newer models such as o3-mini outperforming older ones such as o1 at a much lower cost to continue, and that the ability to get marginally more performance for exponentially more money will be really strange.” (said 21 December 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a6b15f31e7db, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a6b15f31e7db
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Sam Altman
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Mostly true
“And it’s going to be sad because GPT-5 is going to launch and there’s going to be another big spike in demand and we’re not going to be able to serve it.”
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Mostly true
“on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!”
On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.
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Mostly true
“AGI will feel within reach to many people in the industry”
By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.
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Resolved true
“We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale”
By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale.
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Resolved true
“I believe her.”
Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.