ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron’s electrochemical processes.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

Electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron's electrochemical processes.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of January 2001. Compare the switching or operating speed of typical electronic circuits in 2001 (for example transistor or clock speeds) with the speed of a neuron's electrochemical processes (firing rates or synaptic reset times). True: authoritative figures give a ratio of at least 10^7. Mostly true: the ratio is somewhat below 10^7 but within a factor of about 2 (5×10^6 or more). Mostly false: the ratio is real but substantially smaller, roughly 10^5 to 5×10^6. False: the ratio is below about 10^5.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Neuron firing rates in humans AI Impacts · 14 April 2015

    “Thus our best guess is that neurons fire at 0.1-2Hz on average.”
  2. E2 Neuron firing rates in humans AI Impacts · 14 April 2015

    “This implies than neurons are generally not capable of firing at more than 250-1000 Hz.”
  3. E3 Intel Technology Journal Q1, 2001 Intel Corporation · 2001

    “It runs at frequencies of 1.30, 1.40 and 1.50GHz and incorporates new hyper-pipelined technology that doubles the pipeline depth to 20 stages”
  4. E4 Review: Pentium 4 a disappointment at 1.5 GHz CNN (IDG/PC World review) · 20 November 2000

    “Its widespread design innovations are directed primarily at cranking up clock speed--to 1.4 and 1.5 GHz initially, with sufficient headroom”

Reasoning

Clock speeds of about 1.5 GHz (E3, E4) against a maximum firing rate of 250–1000 Hz (E2) give a ratio of roughly 1.5–6 million, while against average firing rates of 0.1–2 Hz (E1) the ratio is far above 10^7. No evidence item establishes which neuron figure is the appropriate measure under the criteria, so the evidence does not settle the claim.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron's electrochemical processes.” (said January 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a42ad741bb84, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a42ad741bb84

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Kurzweil, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “Right now, you’re getting back about four months a year.”

    Currently scientific progress gives back about four months of life expectancy per year.

  2. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “And then AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got the shape exactly correct, and that’s going to help come up with new medications.”

    AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got their shapes exactly correct, which will help produce new medications.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “As of two or three years ago, we had gone through 170,000 proteins.”

    As of two or three years ago, 170,000 proteins had been worked through by people.

  4. Mixed Factual May 2020
    “The current method for testing these few treatments is to organize a few hundred human subjects and then test them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

  5. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “Very often, the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.”

    Very often the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.