ClaimsNate Silver

“Only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.”

Nate Silver, editor in chief, writing on FiveThirtyEight 2015 Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (FiveThirtyEight)

Factual Other

Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: in their nomination runs (Lieberman 2004 Democratic, Clinton 2008 Democratic, Giuliani 2008 Republican, Perry 2012 Republican), Clinton was the only one who came close to the nomination. Clinton finished a close second in pledged delegates and won many primaries, while each of the others withdrew early with few delegates and no serious path to the nomination. Mostly true: the same is broadly the case, but one of the others won some contests or briefly led national polls without coming near the nomination. Mixed: one of the other three also plausibly came close, for example by finishing second with a sizeable share of delegates. Mostly false or false: Clinton did not come close, or several of the others came about as close as she did.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 2008 Democratic Delegates | RealClearPolitics RealClearPolitics

    “State Date Delegates Obama Clinton Total - 2229.5 1896.5 Super Delegates - 823 463 257 Pledged Delegates - 3434 1766.5 1639.5”
  2. E2 Lieberman ends 'quest' for White House CNN · 3 February 2004

    “Lieberman, a senator from Connecticut, had been expected to compete well in Delaware on Tuesday, but with results in from nearly all precincts, he had earned only 11 percent of the vote.”
  3. E3 McCain Defeats Romney in Florida Republican Primary ABC News · 29 January 2008

    “The outcome is a crushing blow to the presidential aspirations of Giuliani, who gambled his entire campaign on winning the Florida primary, effectively skipping the earlier state contests.”
  4. E4 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “He performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender, and soon displaced Bachmann as Romney's major opponent.”

Reasoning

E1 shows that Clinton finished a close second to Obama in 2008 pledged delegates (1,639.5 to 1,766.5), so she came close to the nomination. E2 shows Lieberman ending his 2004 campaign after weak results, including 11% in Delaware. E3 calls Giuliani's 2008 Florida loss a crushing blow to a campaign that had staked everything on that state. E4 says Perry polled strongly and became Romney's major opponent, but none of the evidence shows Perry or Giuliani winning contests, leading national polls or getting near the nomination.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a15c38af4044, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a15c38af4044

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “That will require probing deep into Republican territory, winning at least two states that have become solidly red at the presidential level.”

    Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level.

  2. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “To win the Senate, they’ll need four pickups.2”

    Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026.

  3. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “Obviously, none of this is easy for Democrats — Collins, in particular, survived in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.”

    Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden.

  4. Mixed Factual 7 November 2024
    “Utah has gradually been getting more purple, between attracting a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being so keen on Trump.”

    Utah has gradually become more politically purple, due to a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being keen on Trump.

  5. Mostly true Factual 7 November 2024
    “The conservatives who leave tend to wind up in Florida and Texas, so those states are getting redder”

    Conservatives leaving blue states tend to move to Florida and Texas, making those states redder, and many polls did not catch up.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.