ClaimsTyler Cowen

“That said, institutions do indeed matter, and in addition to their usual effects they will shape both #1 and #2 over the longer run.”

Tyler Cowen, blogger 6 December 2025 Two things that really matter (Marginal Revolution)

Prediction Economics and markets

Institutions matter and, in addition to their usual effects, will shape both of the factors Cowen labels #1 and #2 over the longer run.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Prediction with vague 'longer run' and no defined horizon.

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “Institutions matter and, in addition to their usual effects, will shape both of the factors Cowen labels #1 and #2 over the longer run.” (said 6 December 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9ea6b1a12ee6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9ea6b1a12ee6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Tyler Cowen, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Tyler Cowen

  1. Mostly true Prediction 13 May 2019
    “The trade war likely will hurt China more than the United States”

    The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 29 December 2021
    “I think they will attract a fair number of students.”

    The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 29 December 2021
    “They will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education.”

    The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 29 December 2021
    “I think they will genuinely teach classic works.”

    The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.