The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States.

Judge the economic effects of the 2018–2020 US-China tariff war, using studies published up to the time of research. True: most credible estimates (for example Fajgelbaum et al., Amiti-Redding-Weinstein, IMF analyses and estimates of GDP or welfare effects) find that China bore greater economic losses than the US, on the measures the studies use (GDP, welfare or export losses). Mostly true: China's losses are larger on most measures, with some exceptions, or the difference is modest. Mixed: the evidence is split, with comparable losses or different measures pointing different ways. Mostly false: most studies find the US bore similar or greater costs, with only limited evidence that China lost more. False: the evidence clearly shows the US was hurt more, for example because US consumers and firms bore most of the tariff costs while China's losses were smaller.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The US-China Trade War and Global Value Chains Yang Zhou, Fudan University (working paper, hosted on World Bank document site) · 15 March 2023

   “the trade war costs China $35.2 billion, or 0.29% of GDP, and costs the United States $15.6 billion, or 0.08% of GDP.”

2. E2 The U.S.-China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University (Working Paper 19-WP 595) · October 2019

   “under the accumulated tariffs implemented as of September 2019, China’s welfare falls by 1.9% while U.S. welfare falls by 0.3%.”

3. E3 Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs: A Case Study of the U.S.-China Trade War Effects on the Economy of the United States Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies (Vilnius University) · 2020

   “The study has revealed that the United States economy will benefit from the trade war, which can be explained by a relatively weak China’s retaliatory response.”

4. E4 More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America | Brookings Brookings Institution (originally appeared in SupChina) · 9 March 2022

   “The trade war caused economic pain on both sides and led to diversion of trade flows away from both China and the United States.”

Two independent studies estimate that China lost more than the US [E1][E2]. E1 puts the cost at 0.29% of GDP for China against 0.08% for the US. E2 projects a 1.9% welfare fall for China against 0.3% for the US. E3 finds a net gain for the US economy, which fits the claim that China was hurt more, though it models only the US side. E4 says both countries were hurt but gives no comparison, and the evidence does not include the benchmark studies the criteria name. So the verdict is mostly true rather than fully true.