ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“we’ve looked at a lot of the sky with at least some level of power, and we don’t see anybody out there.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author 12 December 2002 The Intelligent Universe (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

Astronomers have searched much of the sky with some level of sensitivity and have not detected any extraterrestrial civilization.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge the factual claim that astronomers have surveyed much of the sky at some sensitivity and detected no extraterrestrial civilization. True if, as of 2002, SETI and related surveys had covered a substantial fraction of the sky at some power level with no confirmed detection. Mostly true if broadly correct with minor overstatement of coverage. Mostly false if coverage was far more limited than implied. False if a detection had been confirmed or the characterization is wrong.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Ask Dr. SETI: How Much of the Sky Have You Covered? The SETI League, Inc. · 28 December 2002

    “Although the world's collective SETI programs have by now probably looked in most of the possible directions at some frequency for some period of time, we've so far only looked reliably out to a distance of perhaps 200 light years.”
  2. E2 Ask Dr. SETI: How Much of the Sky Have You Covered? The SETI League, Inc. · 28 December 2002

    “One such instrument (and there are only handful of them in the world) can see one part in a million of the sky.”
  3. E3 Ask Dr. SETI: How Much of the Sky Have You Covered? The SETI League, Inc. · 28 December 2002

    “So in terms of the volume of interstellar space, we've seen less than one fifteen millionth of our own Milky Way galaxy.”
  4. E4 Ask Dr. SETI: How Much of the Sky Have You Covered? The SETI League, Inc. · 28 December 2002

    “So the official SETI League answer is not expressed in percentages. We can't count that low.”

Reasoning

The evidence says SETI programs had probably looked in most directions at some frequency [E1], but that they had seen less than one fifteen-millionth of the galaxy's volume [E3]. None of the quoted passages says whether any extraterrestrial civilization had been detected, so the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Astronomers have searched much of the sky with some level of sensitivity and have not detected any extraterrestrial civilization.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9a14f42a667d, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9a14f42a667d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Kurzweil, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “Right now, you’re getting back about four months a year.”

    Currently scientific progress gives back about four months of life expectancy per year.

  2. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “And then AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got the shape exactly correct, and that’s going to help come up with new medications.”

    AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got their shapes exactly correct, which will help produce new medications.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “As of two or three years ago, we had gone through 170,000 proteins.”

    As of two or three years ago, 170,000 proteins had been worked through by people.

  4. Mixed Factual May 2020
    “The current method for testing these few treatments is to organize a few hundred human subjects and then test them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

  5. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “Very often, the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.”

    Very often the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.

All of them

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