Crewed sub-orbital flights were fewer in 2022 than in 2021, with no measurable increase in paying passengers.

Judge as of 2023-01-01, using a count of crewed sub-orbital flights (Blue Origin New Shepard and Virgin Galactic) in calendar 2021 and 2022, and the number of paying passengers flown each year. True: there were fewer crewed sub-orbital flights in 2022 than in 2021, and paying passengers flown did not clearly rise in 2022 versus 2021 (flat or lower). Mostly true: both parts hold, with a minor slip in detail, for example a flight count off by one that does not change which year was higher. Mixed: one of the two parts holds and the other fails, for example flights were down but paying passengers clearly rose. Mostly false: crewed flights in 2022 equalled or slightly exceeded 2021, but paying passengers did not rise. False: crewed sub-orbital flights rose in 2022 and paying passengers clearly increased.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks) · 1 January 2022 Own record

   “As best as I can tell six of those seats were paid for.”

2. E2 Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin launches 6 people to space in fourth crewed flight Space.com · 31 March 2022

   “Lai was joined on NS-20 by five paying customers: businessman and angel investor Marty Allen, the former CEO of Party America;”

3. E3 New Shepard - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “The fourth crewed flight happened in March 2022. On June 4, 2022, New Shepard completed its fifth crewed mission launch and the sixth crewed flight took place on August 4, 2022.”

4. E4 Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks) · 1 January 2022 Own record

   “Blue Origin was a little like an actual tourism company in that all three of its manned sub-orbital space flights in 2021 had between one and four paying customers on board, though each launch also had non-paying celebratory guests.”

5. E5 New Shepard - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “The fourth crewed flight happened in March 2022. On June 4, 2022, New Shepard completed its fifth crewed mission launch and the sixth crewed flight took place on August 4, 2022.”

6. E6 New Shepard - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “The second and third crewed missions of New Shepard took place in October and December 2021.”

7. E7 Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks) · 1 January 2022 Own record

   “A total of 14 people flew on these three flights, none of whom were professional space travelers. As best as I can tell six of those seats were paid for.”

8. E8 Virgin Galactic Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results and Provides Business Update Business Wire (Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. press release) · 28 February 2023

   “With our enhancement program complete and validation flights underway, we remain on track to launch commercial service in the second quarter of 2023.”

9. E9 Blue Origin flies six on first New Shepard suborbital flight of 2022 SpaceNews · 23 January 2023

   “The company flew 14 people on three crewed flights in 2021.”

10. E10 Blue Origin launches 6 people on company's 5th space tourism flight Space.com · 4 June 2022

    “VSS Unity has flown to space four times to date, but it hasn't yet carried paying customers.”

11. E11 Blue Origin flies six on first New Shepard suborbital flight of 2022 SpaceNews · 23 January 2023

    “Five of the people are paying customers: Marty Allen, Sharon and Marc Hagle, Jim Kitchen and George Nield.”

Independent evidence shows three crewed New Shepard flights in 2021 (E6, E9) and at least three in 2022 (E3). The evidence does not say when Virgin Galactic's crewed flights took place in either year: E11 gives only a cumulative total of four as of June 2022, and E8 does not cover 2022 flights. So it cannot establish whether total crewed sub-orbital flights fell from 2021 to 2022. Paying passengers are only partly documented: the 2021 figure of six comes from the subject's own scorecard (E7), and for 2022 only the five paying customers on NS-20 are shown (E2, E12), with no counts for the later 2022 flights. The evidence therefore does not settle either part of the claim.