ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Not so for Boeing.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2025 Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Factual Economics and markets

Boeing's Starliner did not bring its crew back from space as expected.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 1 January 2025. True: Boeing's Starliner Crew Flight Test (launched June 2024) did not return its crew (Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams) to Earth as planned, for example because Starliner came back uncrewed and the astronauts stayed on the ISS to return on another vehicle. Mostly true: the crew did not return on Starliner as planned, with only a minor misstatement in surrounding detail. Mostly false: the crew's return was delayed but they did come back on Starliner. False: Starliner returned its crew as scheduled.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 NASA Decides to Bring Starliner Spacecraft Back to Earth Without Crew - NASA NASA · 24 August 2024

    “NASA will return Boeing’s Starliner to Earth without astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard the spacecraft, the agency announced Saturday.”
  2. E2 NASA Decides to Bring Starliner Spacecraft Back to Earth Without Crew - NASA NASA · 24 August 2024

    “They will fly home aboard a Dragon spacecraft with two other crew members assigned to the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission.”
  3. E3 NASA, Boeing Welcome Starliner Spacecraft to Earth, Close Mission - NASA NASA · 7 September 2024

    “NASA and Boeing safely returned the uncrewed Starliner spacecraft following its landing at 10:01 p.m. MDT Sept. 6 at White Sands Space Harbor in New Mexico, concluding a three-month flight test to the International Space Station.”
  4. E4 NASA, Boeing Welcome Starliner Spacecraft to Earth, Close Mission - NASA NASA · 7 September 2024

    “Wilmore and Williams will continue their work aboard station as part of the Expedition 71/72 crew, returning in February 2025 with the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission.”

Reasoning

NASA said on 24 August 2024 that Starliner would return to Earth without Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams aboard, and that the two would come home on a SpaceX Dragon with Crew-9 (E1, E2). NASA then confirmed that the uncrewed Starliner landed on 6 September. It also said Wilmore and Williams would stay on the station and return with Crew-9 in February 2025 (E3, E4). So as of 1 January 2025, Starliner had not brought its crew back as planned.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Boeing's Starliner did not bring its crew back from space as expected.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_5421538f99ca, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5421538f99ca

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2025
    “Both billionaires have flown to space on their own craft.”

    Both billionaire founders of the two suborbital tourism companies have flown to space on their own craft.

  2. Resolved true Factual 1 January 2025
    “As it happened, although there were more anomalies with the thrusters the crew would have landed safely had they been on board.”

    Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024.

  3. Mostly false Factual 29 September 2024
    “There is an enormous supply chain for standard sized bolts, so they are way cheaper than custom sized bolts, by two or three orders of magnitude.”

    Standard-sized bolts are two to three orders of magnitude cheaper than custom-sized bolts because of their enormous supply chain.

  4. Resolved true Factual 29 September 2024
    “We got to millions of robots per year.”

    iRobot reached sales or production of millions of robots per year.

  5. Mostly true Factual 18 June 2026
    “Today Trump signed his surrender to Iran at Versailles.”

    On 18 June 2026 Donald Trump signed an agreement with Iran at Versailles.

All of them

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