ClaimsSteven Pinker

“I suspect not for a couple of reasons.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee 2023 The Intelligence and Rationality of AI and Humans: A Conversation With Steven Pinker (Harvard Data Science Review) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Pinker suspects that large language models will not grow exponentially and develop self-awareness as a self-perpetuating technology.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

It has no horizon and combines vague exponential growth with self-awareness, which is undefined.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Pinker suspects that large language models will not grow exponentially and develop self-awareness as a self-perpetuating technology.” (said 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_96a5c04cdaab, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_96a5c04cdaab

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Steven Pinker, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Steven Pinker

  1. Resolved true Prediction 30 December 2022
    “Will ChatGPT put Google Search out of business? Not yet.”

    ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.

All of them

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