ClaimsGary Marcus

“LLMs will not disappear, even if improvements diminish, but the economics will likely never make sense: additional training is expensive, the more scaling, the more costly.”

Gary Marcus, author 9 November 2024 CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns (Marcus on AI) archived copy

Prediction AI, the economy and work

LLMs will not disappear, but their economics will likely never make sense because training costs rise with scaling.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Prediction that economics will 'never' make sense has no horizon.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “LLMs will not disappear, but their economics will likely never make sense because training costs rise with scaling.” (said 9 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_92095897bc4e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_92095897bc4e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).”

    Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI.”

    Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”

    Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”

    GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

    OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.