ClaimsWarren Buffett

“Doing that in the case of terrorism, however, could literally bankrupt the industry.”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in shareholder letter 28 February 2002 Chairman's Letter (2001) (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Other global risks

Ignoring terrorism exposure in insurance pricing could bankrupt the insurance industry.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Conditional hypothetical with no stated time horizon, so it cannot be tested against the material.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Ignoring terrorism exposure in insurance pricing could bankrupt the insurance industry.” (said 28 February 2002). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_900a8f48b3e2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_900a8f48b3e2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024
    “I feel very comfortable about the fact that it will be made by a board, that they’ve got loads of brainpower, they’ve got a dedication to an unusual institution, and they will figure things out.”

    Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024
    “But we have sold shares, and I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have now.”

    Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “we will get out of it.”

    The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
    “I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one.”

    Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.