ClaimsGary Marcus

“In my most notorious article, in March of 2022, I argued that “deep learning is hitting a wall”.”

Gary Marcus, author March 2022 CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns (Marcus on AI) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if Gary Marcus published an article in March 2022 that argues deep learning is hitting a wall (for example one titled or framed as 'Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall'), as shown by the publication's dated record. Mostly true if the article was published within a few days outside March 2022 (e.g. late February or early April) and makes that argument. Mixed if it was published in 2022 but more than a month from March, or the 'hitting a wall' argument is only a side point. Mostly false if such an article exists but was published in another year. False if Marcus published no article making that argument around that time.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall - Nautilus Nautilus · 10 March 2022

    “Indeed, we may already be running into scaling limits in deep learning, perhaps already approaching a point of diminishing returns.”
  2. E2 Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall - Nautilus Nautilus · 10 March 2022

    “Gary Marcus is a scientist, best-selling author, and entrepreneur.”
  3. E3 Gilbane Advisor — neurosymbolic hybrid, content understanding Gilbane Advisor (Frank Gilbane) · 30 March 2022

    “Gary Marcus provides historical and recent context and makes a case for a neurosymbolic hybrid approach.”
  4. E4 Has Sam Altman gone full Gary Marcus? Gary Marcus (Substack) · 16 November 2023 Own record

    “On March 20, 2022 in Nautilus, in the essay I am perhaps most notorious for, I suggested that deep learning might be approaching a wall”

Reasoning

The Nautilus essay "Deep Learning Is Hitting a Wall" carries a publication date of 2022-03-10, which falls in March 2022 (E1). The essay argues that deep learning may be reaching scaling limits and diminishing returns (E1). Its author biography names Gary Marcus (E2). A Gilbane Advisor roundup dated 2022-03-30 independently mentions a Marcus essay from that period that makes the case for a neurosymbolic hybrid approach (E3). Marcus's own later post (E4) gives a slightly different date but agrees it was published in March 2022.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall.” (said March 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8f0a55c40e2b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8f0a55c40e2b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Resolved true Factual 9 November 2024
    “For years I have been warning that “scaling” — eeking out improvements in AI by adding more data and more compute, without making fundamental architectural changes — would not continue forever.”

    Gary Marcus has for years warned that AI scaling by adding data and compute without architectural changes would not continue forever.

  2. Mostly true Factual 31 March 2024
    “In early August, I wrote a piece called What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud, picked up in the Financial Times and elsewhere.”

    In early August 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a piece titled 'What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud', which was picked up by the Financial Times and other outlets.

  3. Resolved true Factual February 2024
    “Immediately after the February announcement of Sora, I noted Sora’s troubles with physics and predicted that they wouldn’t go away. They haven’t.”

    After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have.

  4. Mostly true Factual 26 October 2023
    “So it was heartening to see many of the ideas that I have been pushing for a long time, including a CERN for AI and Global AI governance (which I emphasized in April in my TED talk and in The…”

    Gary Marcus emphasized a CERN for AI and global AI governance in April 2023 in his TED talk and in The Economist.

  5. Resolved true Factual 30 March 2023
    “It actually called for *more* research.”

    The FLI open letter called for more AI research.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.