In what he called a first, possibly imprudent reaction, Nate Silver said it was hard to see how President Trump would not be impeached, given that the call transcript showed him pressuring Ukraine on Biden.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
A strongly hedged prediction, judged by the end of Trump's term (2021-01-20). True: the House of Representatives passed at least one article of impeachment against Trump based on his pressure on Ukraine about Biden. Mostly false: Trump was impeached during the term only on grounds unrelated to Ukraine. False: the House did not impeach Trump before his term ended. Senate conviction is not required, since impeachment means the House vote.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — DAILY DIGEST Congressional Record (U.S. Congress) · 18 December 2019
“Article I: Abuse of Power. By a yea-and-nay vote of 230 yeas to 197 nays with one answering ‘‘present’’, Roll No. 695, the House adopted Article 1 of H. Res. 755”
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E2 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — DAILY DIGEST Congressional Record (U.S. Congress) · 18 December 2019
“Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors: The House agreed to H. Res. 755, impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors, and adopted Articles I and II.”
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E3 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — DAILY DIGEST Congressional Record (U.S. Congress) · 18 December 2019
“Article II: Obstruction of Congress. By a recorded vote of 229 ayes to 198 noes with one answering ‘‘present’’, Roll No. 696, the House adopted Article 2 of H. Res. 755”
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E4 Second impeachment of Donald Trump - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Donald Trump, serving as the 45th president of the United States, was impeached for the second time on January 13, 2021, one week before his term expired. On that date, the House of Representatives adopted one article of impeachment against Trump: incitement of insurrection.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows the House impeached Trump on 2019-12-18 by adopting articles titled Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress (E1, E2, E3), and again in January 2021 for incitement of insurrection (E4). None of the evidence items says that any article was based on his pressure on Ukraine about Biden, so the evidence cannot separate the criteria's "true" outcome from its "mostly false" outcome.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “In what he called a first, possibly imprudent reaction, Nate Silver said it was hard to see how President Trump would not be impeached, given that the call transcript showed him pressuring Ukraine on Biden.” (said 25 September 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8d5a44c12c47, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8d5a44c12c47
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nate Silver
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Mostly true
“I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”
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Mixed
“Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”
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Resolved true
“Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.”
Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.
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Resolved true
“It's not that hard for Democrats to back into holding the Senate if there are subpar GOP candidates in a couple of key states or they just happen to win the races that are decided by a point or two.”
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Resolved true
“House is much trickier and requires an unlikely change in the nat'l environment.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.