The average US tariff rate on the rest of the world was at least 23% as of April 2025.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Use credible estimates of the average effective US tariff rate on all imports as of the remark, i.e. with the 'Liberation Day' tariffs in force or announced around 8 April 2025. Suitable estimates include the Yale Budget Lab, Tax Foundation, Penn Wharton and similar analyses of the statutory or pre-substitution average rate. True: such estimates put the average rate at 23% or higher. Mostly true: the best estimates are just under the bound (about 21-23%). Mixed: estimates differ, with some at or above 23% and others clearly below. Mostly false: the rate is only reached under an unusual measure or a single outlier estimate, while mainstream estimates are well below 23% (e.g. 15-21%). False: estimates are far below (under 15%).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2 The Budget Lab at Yale · 2 April 2025
“The average effective US tariff rate after incorporating all 2025 tariffs is now 22 ½%, the highest since 1909.”
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E2 The Budget Lab at Yale | The Fiscal and Economic Effects of the Revised April 9 Tariffs The Budget Lab at Yale · 10 April 2025
“This increase would bring the overall US average effective tariff rate to 27%, the highest since 1903.”
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E3 US Tariff History: Complete Data 1789-2026 davemanuel.com · 20 February 2026
“The average effective US tariff rate spiked from about 2.5% at the start of 2025 to an estimated 28% by April 15 - the highest since 1901, by the Yale Budget Lab's April 15, 2025 estimate of the statutory rate before importers shift their buying (about 18% after those shifts).”
Reasoning
The Yale Budget Lab's estimate covering all 2025 tariffs through the April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement put the average effective US tariff rate at 22.5% (E1), just under the 23% bound. A later Yale estimate reflecting the revised April 9 tariffs put the rate at 27% (E2), and a retrospective summary cites about 28% by April 15 on the pre-substitution measure (E3). Both of those, however, reflect changes made after the April 8 remark. The closest contemporaneous estimate sits just below 23%, which fits the 'mostly true' band in the criteria.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “The average US tariff rate on the rest of the world was at least 23% as of April 2025.” (said 8 April 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_8b711eb13dda, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8b711eb13dda
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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