ClaimsNate Silver

“Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular.”

Nate Silver, writing on X 27 May 2022 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2022-05-27 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2022-05-27 using national polls that ask specifically about forgiving all student loan debt (full or complete cancellation). True: such polls consistently show clearly more opposition than support (e.g. support well below 40% or net opposition of 10+ points). Mostly true: most polls show net opposition, but the margins are modest or vary. Mixed: polls are split or roughly even. Mostly false: it is unpopular only in some polls or wordings, while others show plurality support. False: polls on full forgiveness generally show majority or plurality support.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Most Americans support canceling at least some student loan debt YouGov · 10 May 2022

    “When asked how much student debt should be forgiven, 21% say all debt should be forgiven, while 23% say none of it should be.”
  2. E2 Most Americans support canceling at least some student loan debt YouGov · 10 May 2022

    “Two-thirds of Americans (67%) support forgiving at least some of the student debt held by all Americans.”
  3. E3 Student debt cancellation is supported by more than half of Americans, surveys find Yahoo Finance · 22 December 2020

    “found that 55% of voters support cancellation of all student loan debt.”
  4. E4 7 in 10 Young Voters Support Canceling Student Debt, Poll Finds Truthout · 18 May 2022

    “Once considered a fringe idea, the poll also finds that a plurality of young Democratic voters (45 percent) and young voters with student debt (43 percent) say that all student loans should be canceled.”

Reasoning

A May 2022 YouGov national poll found only 21% said all student debt should be forgiven, though that was one option among others (all, some, none), so it does not directly measure opposition to full cancellation (E1, E2). A survey reported in December 2020 found 55% of voters supported cancelling all student loan debt (E3), and a 2022 poll found pluralities of young Democrats and young borrowers favored cancelling everything (E4, not a general national sample). The available polls on full forgiveness conflict depending on wording and timing. They do not consistently show clear net opposition, and they do not generally show support either.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls.” (said 27 May 2022). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_653ca6f032d5, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_653ca6f032d5

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.