ClaimsMichael Burry

“In the worst case, I expect our mortgage short will fully amortize to nil value over the next three years”

Michael Burry, Scion fund manager 2006 Scion Funds annual letters compilation (investorkurs.no)

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Burry expected that, in the worst case, his fund's mortgage short would fully amortize to nil value over the next three years, at an average annual cost of carry of roughly six percent of current assets under management.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

The cost as a share of the fund's assets under management depends on internal figures.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Burry expected that, in the worst case, his fund's mortgage short would fully amortize to nil value over the next three years, at an average annual cost of carry of roughly six percent of current assets under management.” (said 2006). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_8aa14bdadcd9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8aa14bdadcd9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Michael Burry, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Michael Burry

  1. Mostly false Prediction 5 April 2011
    “All personal income taxes collected in a year do not so much as add up to $1 trillion dollars, and yet by 2020 interest expense on our national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion.”

    US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 5 April 2011
    “Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term”

    Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.

  3. Mixed Prediction 2008
    “I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”

    Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2008
    “Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now in the cards.”

    Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “The S&P 500 could easily finish the year in the negative, dragging many investment funds – too many of which are crowded into the same “value-but-for-a-dire-economy” trades – down with it.”

    The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.