Most measures such as poverty, war, homicide and literacy are much better now than they used to be.

Judged as of 2026-10-11 using long-run data (for example over the past century or longer). True: authoritative long-run datasets show that most of the measures named (extreme poverty rates, war death rates, homicide rates, literacy) are substantially better now than in earlier eras. Mostly true: most are clearly better, but one is only modestly better or depends on the baseline chosen (for example, recent war deaths are above recent lows but still below historical levels). Mixed: about half are clearly better and the rest are flat or worse over the long run. Mostly false: only a minority are clearly better, or the improvement holds only over a cherry-picked period. False: most of these measures are not better than they used to be.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data · 29 July 2024

   “In 1820, only 1 in 10 people over the age of 15 could read. Today, the corresponding global literacy rate — the share of adults aged 15 and older who can read and write — is 87%.”

2. E2 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data · 29 July 2024

   “The chart shows the rising global literacy rate over time. The data combines historical estimates from academic historians with more recent statistics from UNESCO.”

3. E3 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data

   “In the year 2000, 36% of the world’s population lived on less than $3 per day. In 2024, it was 10%.”

4. E4 Conflict trends: A global overview, 1946–2025 Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), PRIO Paper 2026 (copy hosted on in.gr) · 16 September 2026

   “The graph clearly shows an increase in direct battle-related deaths over the past 14 years.”

5. E5 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data · 29 July 2024

   “In 1820, only 1 in 10 people over the age of 15 could read. Today, the corresponding global literacy rate — the share of adults aged 15 and older who can read and write — is 87%.”

6. E6 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data · 29 July 2024

   “The data combines historical estimates from academic historians with more recent statistics from UNESCO.”

7. E7 Two centuries ago, only 1 in 10 adults could read. Today, it’s almost 9 in 10 Our World in Data · 29 July 2024

   “The data combines historical estimates from academic historians with more recent statistics from UNESCO.”

8. E8 Homicide rates over the long term Our World in Data · 6 January 2025

   “Historical estimates of homicide rates are derived from national vital statistics and judicial archives. The older data is often fragmented and subject to a number of biases including: geographic bias, incomplete records, changing age structure, wound treatment, and the lethality of weapons.”

E1 and E2 show a long-run gain in literacy, from about 1 in 10 adults in 1820 to 87% today. E3 shows extreme poverty falling from 36% to 10%, but only for 2000–2024, which is shorter than the long-run window the criteria ask for. E4 reports that absolute battle deaths have risen over the past 14 years, and the evidence contains no long-run war death rates to compare against. E8 describes the sources behind historical homicide estimates but gives no values. Only one of the four measures is settled by long-run data, so the evidence cannot show whether most of them have improved substantially.