Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the end of 2016. True: through 31 December 2016 Scott Alexander kept using all three platforms (Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook) and did not quit or abandon any of them. False: during 2016 he stopped using one or more of them, for example by deleting or deactivating an account or announcing he was quitting and then not using it. His own dated grading of this prediction counts as evidence, along with his account activity.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (2)
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E1 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander) · 31 December 2016 Own record
“Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can’t decide if they’re true or not.”
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E2 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander) · 31 December 2016 Own record
“For 95% predictions, I got 9 right and 0 wrong, for a score of 100%”
Reasoning
E2 reports that the author's 95% predictions for 2016 came out 9 right and 0 wrong, and E1 says some predictions were thrown out as undecidable. Neither quote shows whether this prediction was counted as right or was thrown out, and no evidence of his activity on each platform was provided.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_840c922c1fbd, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_840c922c1fbd
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Resolved true
“I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”
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Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
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Mostly true
“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
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Mostly true
“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
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Resolved true
“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.