Valuations of major AI companies may start to fall in 2025.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the end of 2025. The claim is hedged ('could well'). 'Major AI companies' means leading AI developers and AI-focused firms, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and Nvidia, plus large listed AI companies. True: during 2025 the valuations of most of these companies began a sustained fall and ended the year below their early-2025 levels. Mixed: a meaningful share of these companies ended 2025 clearly below their early-2025 valuation while others rose. Mostly false: there were only temporary drops during 2025 that recovered, so that most companies ended the year flat or higher. False: valuations of major AI companies rose broadly through 2025, with no sustained decline beginning.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 NVIDIA (NVDA) Market Cap & Net Worth StockAnalysis.com · 3 November 2026
“| Date | Market Cap | % Change | |---|---|---| | Nov 4, 2026 | 4.89T | 7.96% | | Dec 31, 2025 | 4.53T | 37.80% |”
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E2 6 Charts That Show The Big AI Funding Trends Of 2025 Crunchbase News · 16 December 2025
“At the close of 2025, OpenAI is the most valuable private company of all time, valued at $500 billion.”
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E3 ‘It’s almost tragic’: Bubble or not, the AI backlash is validating one critic’s warnings | Fortune Fortune · 24 August 2025
“A tech selloff ensued, as rattled investors sent the value of the S&P 500 down by $1 trillion.”
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E4 GenAI’s day of reckoning may have come Gary Marcus Substack · 27 March 2025 Own record
“NVidia, the largest company actually making serious profits from AI, is down 17.75% for the year, and (after a meteoric rise) clearly facing headwinds.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a 2025 drop for Nvidia [E4] and high year-end 2025 figures for Nvidia and OpenAI [E1][E2], but it gives no clear early-2025 baseline and nothing on Anthropic, xAI or other large listed AI companies. So it does not show whether most major AI companies ended 2025 flat, higher or lower, as the criteria require.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “Valuations of major AI companies may start to fall in 2025.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_82d498ab90cf, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_82d498ab90cf
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Gary Marcus
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Resolved true
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”
Profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent in 2025.
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Mostly true
“GPT-5 may be more satisfying but is likely even more expensive to train and operate.”
GPT-5 is likely to be even more expensive to train and operate than GPT-4.
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Mostly true
“Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”
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Mostly true
“GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”
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Resolved true
“GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.