Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023.

Judged over calendar 2023. The claim is that demand would support about 2 million Tesla vehicles in 2023. True: Tesla's 2023 deliveries were about 2 million (roughly 1.9 million or more), or orders or other records show demand of about 2 million, with no sign that sales were limited by lack of demand. Mostly true: deliveries or demand came close (about 1.8 to 1.9 million) with signs of strong demand. Mixed: deliveries were well below 2 million but the evidence is split on whether demand or supply was the limit. Mostly false: deliveries fell clearly short, and price cuts, rising inventory or Tesla's own comments show demand was weaker than claimed. False: deliveries were far below 2 million (under about 1.7 million) and there is clear evidence of weak demand.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2023 Tesla, Inc. (Investor Relations, via Business Wire) · 2 January 2024 Own record

   “In 2023, vehicle deliveries grew 38% YoY to 1.81 million while production grew 35% YoY to 1.85 million.”

2. E2 Tesla’s EV deliveries fall short as factory upgrade hits production Reuters (republished by BusinessDay) · 2 October 2023

   “but retained its target to deliver 1.8-million vehicles this year.”

3. E3 Tesla’s EV deliveries fall short as factory upgrade hits production Reuters (republished by BusinessDay) · 2 October 2023

   “Tesla has also been cutting prices aggressively to counter the effect of a slowing EV market, while fending off competition from upstarts and legacy players.”

4. E4 Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Hits New Low: 59,000 On Jun 19, 2023 InsideEVs · 7 July 2023

   “The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog decreased in June, reaching the lowest level so far, which suggests that the manufacturer might soon apply additional price cuts to maintain the balance between supply and demand.”

Tesla's official Q4 2023 release reports 2023 deliveries of 1.81 million against production of 1.85 million (E1), so deliveries fell about 10% short of 2 million and inventory grew. Independent reporting describes aggressive price cuts to counter a slowing EV market (E3), and the estimated order backlog fell to its lowest level by mid-2023 (E4). Tesla's own 2023 target was also 1.8 million rather than 2 million (E2). Deliveries landed at the bottom of the 'close' range [E1]. Price cuts made to counter a slowing EV market [E3] and a falling estimated order backlog [E4] point to demand softer than claimed, though a factory upgrade also affected production [E2]. On balance this fits mostly false under the criteria.