ClaimsGary Marcus

“Shiny things are always fun to play with, and I fully expect GPT-4 to be the shiniest so far, but that doesn’t mean that it is a critical step on the optimal path to AI that we can trust.”

Gary Marcus, author 25 December 2022 What to Expect When You're Expecting … GPT-4 (Marcus on AI)

Prediction AI capabilities

Marcus fully expected GPT-4 to be the shiniest model so far, but said that this does not mean it is a critical step on the optimal path to AI that can be trusted.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'Critical step on the optimal path' is a counterfactual, subjective judgment.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “Marcus fully expected GPT-4 to be the shiniest model so far, but said that this does not mean it is a critical step on the optimal path to AI that can be trusted.” (said 25 December 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_7eaa0c9559d9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7eaa0c9559d9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”

    Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”

    GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

    OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “It will still make a significant number of shake-your-head stupid errors, in ways that are hard to fully predict.”

    GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent.”

    Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.