AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_7e75649e1b7c, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7e75649e1b7c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.