Scott Alexander guessed that the prediction market under discussion would resolve when AI agents are actually good, which he put at roughly late 2026 in their scenario.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander guessed that the prediction market under discussion would resolve when AI agents are actually good, which he put at roughly late 2026 in their scenario.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_7a31652f2173, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7a31652f2173
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
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“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
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“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
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“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
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“I expect scaling to continue to produce gains, but this is less obvious than it’s been the past five years.”
Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.