The subject said that the simplest thing he described is, in his view, guaranteed to produce really exceptional returns, while adding that looking back from 2030 there would almost certainly be something that did better.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
'Guaranteed exceptional returns' is vague and has no horizon.
Cite this claim
Balaji Srinivasan, “The subject said that the simplest thing he described is, in his view, guaranteed to produce really exceptional returns, while adding that looking back from 2030 there would almost certainly be something that did better.” (said 25 March 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_78c64850bb26, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_78c64850bb26
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan
-
Mixed
“When checks hit, people will spend on consumer staples.”
-
Mostly true
“So this is going to do is it's going to force everybody to look at remote work as not a auxiliary, but as a primary.”
The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary.
-
Mostly true
“And so this is going to be a gigantic shot in the arm for every diagnostic company in the world, every medical imaging company.”
-
Resolved true
“Well, I think it's definitely going to cause at least a recession, but likely something more severe than that.”
COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe.
-
Mostly false
“I think that’s going to structurally reduce fees over the years to come.”
Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.