ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“And so this is going to be a gigantic shot in the arm for every diagnostic company in the world, every medical imaging company.”

Balaji Srinivasan, podcast guest 13 March 2020 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

Prediction Economics and markets

The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Horizon: end-2021. The claim has two parts: diagnostic companies and medical-imaging companies, worldwide, each getting a 'gigantic' boost, with spending at the scale of defence budgets. TRUE: diagnostic companies broadly (e.g. Abbott, Roche Diagnostics, Thermo Fisher, Quidel, Hologic, BGI) and imaging companies broadly (e.g. Siemens Healthineers, GE Healthcare, Philips, Canon Medical) show large pandemic-driven gains in revenue or market value in 2020–2021 according to company filings, and government spending on testing reached tens of billions of dollars or more. MOSTLY TRUE: both sectors gained substantially, but the boost was smaller than 'gigantic' for one of them, or spending fell somewhat short of defence-budget scale. MIXED: one sector, typically diagnostics, got a gigantic boost while the other was flat or hurt, for example because elective imaging procedures were deferred. MOSTLY FALSE: only a narrow subset of companies (e.g. COVID test makers) benefited, while most diagnostics and imaging companies did not. FALSE: neither sector saw meaningful pandemic-driven gains.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Roche's 2021 test sales collect on COVID demand, base business ... Fierce Biotech · 3 February 2022

    “Combined, Roche said its testing sales grew 29% to 17.8 billion Swiss francs, or about $19.4 billion U.S., with COVID-19 diagnostics accounting for about a quarter of the year’s total.”
  2. E2 Abbott weathers 2021's COVID-testing roller coaster ride ... Fierce Biotech · 26 January 2022

    “For the full year, the medtech giant reported total COVID test sales of $7.7 billion.”
  3. E3 [PDF] Annual Financial Report - Siemens - Digital Asset Management Siemens AG

    “Markets addressed by the imaging business grew significantly, mainly due to large COVID 19-driven demand for computer tomography systems and initial signs of normalization in all other modalities.”
  4. E4 Quidel, Hologic, other test stocks sink as vaccine result brings hope for pandemic's end MedTech Dive · 10 November 2020

    “COVID-19 has fueled meteoric growth at companies that serve the coronavirus testing market.”

Reasoning

The diagnostics side is well supported. Roche's testing sales grew 29% in 2021 to CHF 17.8 billion, with COVID-19 tests about a quarter of the total (E1). Abbott reported $7.7 billion in COVID test sales for 2021 (E2), and MedTech Dive described "meteoric growth" at companies serving the testing market (E4). For imaging, Siemens' FY2021 report says the markets its imaging business serves grew significantly, mainly because of COVID-driven demand for CT systems (E3). However, that is one company rather than the sector broadly, and no evidence shows government testing spending at defence-budget scale. So the claim mostly holds, but the imaging and spending parts are not fully shown.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_778a5661d489, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_778a5661d489

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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  3. Resolved true Prediction 13 March 2020
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  5. Resolved true Prediction 27 August 2024
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.