COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe.

Judged at end-2021. A recession means an officially dated US recession (NBER) or two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP in the US or a global GDP contraction, linked to COVID-19. 'More severe' means a downturn widely documented as deeper than an ordinary recession (e.g. the sharpest contraction since the Great Depression, or labelled a depression). TRUE: a COVID-linked recession occurred and was documented as more severe than a typical recession. MOSTLY TRUE: a COVID-linked recession occurred but was not more severe than an ordinary one (the core claim held; the hedged 'likely more severe' part did not). MOSTLY FALSE: only a slowdown, or a contraction that fell short of recession criteria. FALSE: no contraction.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 19 July 2021

   “The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record.”

2. E2 Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) · 19 July 2021

   “Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions.”

3. E3 A Subdued Recovery, with Damage to Undo World Bank · 5 January 2021

   “The global economy is projected to expand 4% in 2021 after a contraction of 4.3% last year—the fourth most severe global recession in the past 150 years, exceeded only by ones linked to the two World Wars and the Great Depression.”

4. E4 Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · 30 July 2020

   “Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

The NBER dated a US recession beginning after a February 2020 peak and cited the 'unprecedented magnitude' of the decline in employment and production (E1, E2). BEA reported a 32.9% annualized drop in real GDP in Q2 2020 (E4), and the World Bank described the 4.3% global contraction in 2020 as the fourth most severe global recession in 150 years, exceeded only by the World Wars and the Great Depression (E3). Although the US recession was the shortest on record (E1), the evidence documents a downturn deeper than an ordinary recession, meeting the TRUE criterion.