ClaimsTyler Cowen

“The ultimate problem will be a drying up of people to come here, both because of lower birth rates elsewhere and a bunch of other countries are likely to improve.”

Tyler Cowen, interviewee 4 March 2026 Forecast 2050 - Tyler Cowen Transcript (Finn Murphy Substack) archived copy

Prediction Other

The supply of people wanting to immigrate to the US will dry up, due to lower birth rates elsewhere and improving source countries.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A long-run prediction with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “The supply of people wanting to immigrate to the US will dry up, due to lower birth rates elsewhere and improving source countries.” (said 4 March 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_748a8f4aee7f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_748a8f4aee7f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Tyler Cowen

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  2. Mostly true Prediction 29 December 2021
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    The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 29 December 2021
    “I think they will genuinely teach classic works.”

    The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 May 2019
    “The trade war likely will hurt China more than the United States”

    The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States.

All of them

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