ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“There are about 800 million bytes in the uncompressed genome.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author 12 December 2002 The Intelligent Universe (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Read the claim as: the haploid human genome is about 3 billion base pairs, and storing each base at 2 bits with no compression gives roughly 800 million bytes. True: the accepted haploid genome size (about 3.0–3.2 billion bp, as known in 2002), converted at 2 bits per base, gives a figure within about ±15% of 800 million bytes (roughly 680–920 million). Mostly true: within ±30%. Mostly false: the figure is only reached under a contrived assumption, or it differs by 30% up to a factor of 2 (for example, if a natural encoding such as 1 byte per base, or a diploid count, is taken as the standard uncompressed size). False: off by more than a factor of 2 under any reasonable uncompressed encoding.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001

    “The haploid human genome (23 chromosomes) is estimated to be about 3.2 billion base pairs long and to contain 20,000–25,000 distinct protein-coding genes.”
  2. E2 Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001

    “One copy of the human genome consists of approximately 3 billion base pairs of DNA”
  3. E3 Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001

    “The finished length of the human genome is 2.86 Gb”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 put the haploid human genome at about 3–3.2 billion base pairs, and E3 gives a finished length of 2.86 Gb. At 2 bits per base, as the criteria specify, that comes to about 715–800 million bytes. This falls within the ±15% band around 800 million bytes (680–920 million), so the claim resolves true.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_727f51764576, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_727f51764576

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “Right now, you’re getting back about four months a year.”

    Currently scientific progress gives back about four months of life expectancy per year.

  2. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “And then AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got the shape exactly correct, and that’s going to help come up with new medications.”

    AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got their shapes exactly correct, which will help produce new medications.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “As of two or three years ago, we had gone through 170,000 proteins.”

    As of two or three years ago, 170,000 proteins had been worked through by people.

  4. Mixed Factual May 2020
    “The current method for testing these few treatments is to organize a few hundred human subjects and then test them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

  5. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “Very often, the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.”

    Very often the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.

All of them

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