In May 2022, Silver said Trump was not *that* far ahead of DeSantis in polls, and that it was pretty even once name recognition was accounted for.

Judge the substance of what Silver said against 2024 Republican primary polling as of May 2022. First confirm he made the statement around 2022-05-24; if he did not, the claim is false. Substance: (a) Trump's lead over DeSantis in national GOP primary polls from roughly March to May 2022 was modest rather than overwhelming, i.e. most polls or averages show a lead of under about 20 points; and (b) the lead narrowed to near parity among voters familiar with both candidates, or in polls where DeSantis had high name recognition (e.g. Florida polls, or crosstabs of voters who know DeSantis). True: both (a) and (b) hold. Mostly true: (a) holds and (b) is broadly supported, with a small gap still remaining. Mixed: only one of (a) or (b) holds. Mostly false: Trump led by large margins (about 25+ points) and there is only thin or selective evidence for parity once name recognition is accounted for. False: Trump led by very large margins in all polls, including among voters familiar with DeSantis.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Trump Is Losing Ground to DeSantis in Poll After Poll New York Magazine (Intelligencer) · 19 July 2022

   “A New York Times poll last week showed Trump beating DeSantis 49-25 nationally”

2. E2 Polling Archives - Page 34 of 49 - New Jersey Globe New Jersey Globe

   “Former President Donald Trump has a 19-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among possible Republican primary voters in New Hampshire”

3. E3 Microsoft Word - PollReport_July2022_FLGOP Victory Insights · 15 July 2022

   “Overall, that means that DeSantis currently holds a 61% to 39% advantage over Trump, a lead which is far outside of the poll’s margin of error.”

4. E4 Trump support among Republicans slips 5 points in month: survey The Hill · 21 September 2022

   “DeSantis’s name recognition still has room to grow, however, as 15 percent said they have never heard of him and 14 percent said they have no opinion of him.”

5. E5 Analysis: Ron DeSantis’ governing strategy in Florida is paying off | CNN Politics CNN · 21 April 2022

   “Trump is polling above 50% in national primary polls. His favorable rating is at around 80% among Republicans.”

6. E6 Analysis: Ron DeSantis’ governing strategy in Florida is paying off | CNN Politics CNN · 21 April 2022

   “DeSantis is in a distant second place in national primary polls, and his favorable rating is only around 60% with national Republicans.”

7. E7 Analysis: Ron DeSantis’ governing strategy in Florida is paying off | CNN Politics CNN · 21 April 2022

   “An interesting thing happened among voters who had an opinion of both DeSantis and Trump in the Marquette poll: DeSantis’ favorable rating with this group was in the high 80s; Trump’s favorable numbers lagged in the low 80s.”

8. E8 Analysis: Ron DeSantis’ governing strategy in Florida is paying off | CNN Politics CNN · 21 April 2022

   “In other words, Republicans who are aware of both men like DeSantis more.”

None of the evidence shows that Silver made this statement around 2022-05-24, so the first criterion can't be checked. On substance, CNN in April 2022 (E5, E6) reported that Trump was polling above 50% in national primary polls and that DeSantis was a "distant second," but it gave no size for the lead. The poll showing a 24-point gap is from July (E1), and the New Hampshire poll with a 19-point gap is undated (E2), so neither settles criterion (a) for March to May 2022. E7 and E8 show that Republicans who knew both men rated DeSantis more favourably, but that is a favourability measure, not head-to-head primary support, so it does not establish parity under (b).