Many kinds of violence have decreased in frequency.

Judge as of 2011-10-06 using historical and statistical evidence available then. True: the data show long-term declines in the frequency of many distinct kinds of violence (e.g. homicide, war deaths, judicial torture and execution, slavery, lynching, domestic violence, rape, child abuse, violence against minorities) in the populations and periods Pinker describes. Mostly true: most of the kinds of violence listed show declines, but one or two show no clear decline or rest on weak data. Mixed: declines are well documented for only about half of the kinds cited, with the others disputed or flat. Mostly false: only a few kinds (e.g. homicide in Western Europe) show a documented decline, and the claim generalises from them. False: the evidence shows that most kinds of violence did not decline or have increased.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed ... Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Thorough source criticism, however, raises serious doubts about the decline thesis having any substantial empirical foundation.”

2. E2 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed ... Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “His data, on the other hand, appeared to be solid to most reviewers.”

3. E3 Violent Crime FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program (Crime in the United States, 2010) · 16 May 2011

   “In 2010, an estimated 1,246,248 violent crimes occurred nationwide, a decrease of 6.0 percent from the 2009 estimate.”

4. E4 Lynching Oklahoma Historical Society (The Encyclopedia of Oklahoma History and Culture) · 15 January 2010

   “Nationally, lynching grew each year from 1866 through the 1880s, peaked in 1892, and gradually declined, except for an upsurge during the Red Scare of 1919–20.”

5. E5 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Thorough source criticism, however, raises serious doubts about the decline thesis having any substantial empirical foundation.”

6. E6 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Furthermore, medieval and early modern population estimates are highly unreliable.”

7. E7 Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “His data, on the other hand, appeared to be solid to most reviewers”

8. E8 Intimate Partner Violence - Bureau of Justice Statistics U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice) · May 2000

   “In 1998 about 1,830 murders were attributable to intimate partners, down substantially from the 3,000 murders in 1976.”

9. E9 Homicide rates have declined dramatically over the centuries Our World in Data (Global Change Data Lab) · 11 June 2024

   “Since then, murder rates have fallen significantly across these countries. According to data from WHO’s Mortality Database, their homicide rate is now around 1 murder per 100,000 people — less than a tenth of what it used to be.”

10. E10 The Historical Dynamics of Homicide in Europe, 1000-2013 AD Violence Research Centre, University of Cambridge (Professor Manuel Eisner)

    “Over the past 20 years it has become clear that Europe experienced a long decline in the frequency of homicide between the 16th and the early 20th century, possibly accompanied by declines on other types of interpersonal violence. However, the details of this trend and the social mechanisms that caused it continue to cause continued controversy.”

11. E11 Violence and Justice in Europe: Punishment, Torture and Execution (Chapter 20) - The Cambridge World History of Violence Cambridge University Press · 13 March 2020

    “As early as the seventeenth century, the practice of both torture and execution declined, the result of changes in Christianity, the growing confidence of secular states, and concerns that inflicting pain was inherently abusive.”

The evidence documents declines for homicide in Europe (E10), torture and execution (E11), lynching (E4) and intimate-partner murders in the US (E8), and a 2021 critique questions the empirical basis of the long-term decline (E1, E5). It does not address war deaths, slavery, rape, child abuse or violence against minorities more broadly, so it cannot show whether most of the listed kinds declined, as the 'mostly true' grade requires.