ClaimsWarren Buffett

“Under a "close-to-worst-case" scenario, which could conceivably involve $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it manages in some manner to dramatically limit its assumption of terrorism risks.”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in shareholder letter 28 February 2002 Chairman's Letter (2001) (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Other global risks

In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Hypothetical scenario that hasn't occurred and has no horizon.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption.” (said 28 February 2002). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_667d6548a6cd, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_667d6548a6cd

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

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  2. Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024
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  3. Mostly true Prediction 27 February 2017
    “And I think they will end up going for something not as dramatic as they might even like to do because they simply don't want to spend the time and the political capital getting it done.”

    Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
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  5. Resolved true Prediction 23 September 2010
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.